December 15, 2001"Revolting Islamicists," By Chris Sanders, Sanders Research Associates, London. The real origins of Middle East conflict, or why the British and French should have listened to Lawrence. In Comment 435, which also contains the Sykes-Picot Agreement, the Balfour Declaration and President Wilson's "Fourteen Points." November 3, 2001"Warfighting Brought to You by . . ." By Major Jeffrey L. Cowan, U.S. Air Force. Co-Winner, Marine Corps Essay Contest, http://www.proceedings.org/Proceedings/Articles01/PROcowan11.htm. Republished with permission. Although widely recognized as an architect of maneuver warfare, John Boyd was also a godfather of fourth generation warfare. October 19, 2001"Is The U.S. Military Ready To Take On A Non-Conventional Terror Threat?" Elaine M. Grossman, Inside the Pentagon, October 18, 2001. Another in ITP's comprehensive series on the changing nature of warfare and how the US military is - and is not - shaping the war against terrorism in Afghanistan. Boyd's OODA "Loop" A short (91 KB, 5 chart) presentation based on the version Boyd used in his last briefing, "The Essence of Winning and Losing," January 1996. The final chart is a "printer friendly" format in black and white. October 15, 2001"Fourth Generation Warfare is Here," By Harold A. Gould and Franklin C. Spinney. Why the attacks of September 11 are not simply acts of "terrorism" but represent the opening shots in a fourth generation war. October 14, 2001"Letter from Egypt" Exclusive to DNI, a first-person report on how Egyptians from all walks of life reacted to the events of September 11, 2001. Disturbing in places, but in the end, refreshingly optimistic. A Swift, Elusive Sword, presented at the Fall 2001 Boyd Conference in Quantico, Virginia. A 327 KB PowerPoint slide show that illustrates themes from the book. October 9, 2001"Shock-based Operations: New Wine in Old Bottles," Lt Col John N. T. Shanahan, May 2001. Doctrine in the 21st Century must deal with opponents who change rapidly to adapt to our technological superiority. The best way to deal with these "complex adaptive systems" is with a doctrine that produces shock and paralysis, not one that tries to bludgeon them into submission. (378 KB MS Word document.) October 4, 2001"Key Review Offers Scant Guidance On Handling '4th Generation' Threats," Elaine M. Grossman, "Terrorism Battle Like Drug War All Over Again," Hal Kempfer. Once money began flowing into the War on Drugs, it, and not narcotrafficantes, became the focus of attention. October 3, 2001The New QDR: All You Need to Know in One Painless Page, exclusive to Defense and the National Interest by a seasoned veteran of DoD campaigns in Congress. Eyes glazed over at the thought of 71 pages of single spaced, fully coordinated defense planning? Try our one page guide instead. October 2, 2001"Informed Budgeteer," produced by the Congressional staff, October 1, 2001. As we rapidly add money to the DoD budget, how do we know it will be spent wisely? During WW II (see p. 2), the answer was a "Special Committee to Investigate the National Defense," chaired by "an obscure junior senator from Missouri, Harry S. Truman." (22K PDF file) Quadrennial Defense Review Report, September 30, 2001. The new QDR is out. We have also posted two alternatives to the new QDR on our QDR Home Page. September 24, 2001Afghanistan, showing major linguistic/ethnic groups. Other topical maps in Charts and Data. Fourth Generation Warfare, a new introduction to conflict in the 21st Century. September 20, 2001Grand Strategy, by the editor of Defense and the National Interest. A short introduction to this sometimes arcane topic, which, while important in any conflict, separates the winners from the losers in fourth generation warfare. "The Next Conflict," By Col. G.I. Wilson, USMCR; Maj. Frank Bunkers, USMCR; SGT John P. Sullivan, Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department, Intum Magazine, Summer 2001. The threat facing the United States is not terrorism, per se, but a much broader form of conflict known as "fourth generation warfare." "Terrorism" is only one technique available to practitioners of this emerging brand of warfare. Included in Comment 427. September 17, 2001Cohesion, by Dr. Jonathan Shay. A fascinating new study by the author of Achilles in Vietnam. Explores the difference between "cohesion" and "esprit," why cohesive units tend to be much more effective, and how good leadership can avoid the problems that have plagued earlier attempts to improve cohesion. Prepared for the Commandant of the Marine Corps' Trust Study (389 KB MS Word document on Belisarius.com.) The second Lewis Report, "The Army Transformation Meets the Junior Officer Exodus," by Mark R. Lewis, the Institute for Defense Analysis. The events of September 11, 2001 may help the Army meet its near-term accession goals, but they won't solve the fundamental problems in junior officer retention. Presentation to a Congressional discussion group, August 2001. (631 KB PDF file) August 23, 2001OMB FY 2002 Mid Year Report, August 2001. Confirms that except for Social Security, the "surplus" is gone. The US and the Genocide in Rwanda, 1994, sixteen declassified US Government documents detailing why the US refused to take actions to stop the Rwandan genocide and even intervened in the UN to delay measures that might have ended the slaughter. Unlike France, which seems to have had a stake in the organizations that carried out the mass killings, the US was blinded more by simple incompetence and the failure to recognize the changing nature of warfare. On the National Security Archives site at George Washington University, August 20, 2001. The struggle for Israel's soul, By Franklin C. Spinney, The Hindu (India's National Newspaper), August 20, 2001. http://www.hinduonnet.com/stories/05202523.htm A Palestinian state that included the West Bank and Gaza could lay claim, under international law, to some two-thirds of Israel's current consumption of water, including large allotments from the "mountain aquifer" and the flows into the Sea of Galilee. Any peace plan that does not deal with this fact is either a sham or is doomed to failure. Included in Comment 425. August 2, 2001Latest (28 June 2001) poll shows that one-half of the Israeli population believes that war is inevitable or nearly so and two-thirds give Sharon a positive rating for his handling of the crisis. Spending by the US and likely allies exceeds all possible "threats" by roughly a factor of 6. July 30, 2001The Fifteen Power Standard. The FY2002 DoD Budget Amendment exceeds the combined defense budgets of the next fifteen largest spenders. Water Resources of the Occupied Palestinian Territory, United Nations, 1992. Nations and other groups often fight over scarce resources, from hunting grounds to farm land to petroleum. In the Middle East, the West Bank has an abundance of the scarcest resource, water, and this is fueling an intractable conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. This report concludes that "Israeli policies ensure that most of the water of the West Bank percolates underground to Israel, and settlers are provided with increasing access to the water resources of the occupied Palestinian territory. As a consequence, a 'man-made' water crisis has been brought about which undermines the living conditions and endangers the health situation of the Palestinian people." (222KB MS Word) July 27, 2001CANCELED DOD APPROPRIATIONS: $615 Million of Illegal or Otherwise Improper Adjustments, GAO-01-697, July 2001. DoD's refusal to correct known errors in just one accounting system caused it to make $146 million in illegal adjustments (over and above those simply "improper") in just one category in just one fiscal year. To the extent that the department no longer has funds in these accounts to correct the illegal adjustments, DoD could be in violation of the Antideficiency Act, 31 U.S.C. 1351. (250 KB .pdf file) MEDICARE: New Spending Estimates Underscore the Need for Reform. GAO-01-1010T, July 2001. The impending train wreck between defense spending and Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid. By 2030, spending on these accounts will absorb some 75% of total federal revenue, even assuming Social Security surpluses materialize for the next 20 years and all are saved. "Sometime during the 2040s, government would do nothing but mail checks to the elderly and their health care providers." This is obviously untrue: These payments will be made electronically. (112 KB .pdf file) July 23, 2001Palestinians and Middle East Peace: Issues for the United States, Clyde Mark, Congressional Research Service, updated May 24, 2001. Concise source for international agreements, chronologies, and unresolved issues. U.S. positions on terrorism in the region and the legal status of settlements. (157 KB .pdf) The Werther SITREP: Is the Pentagon Hostage to a Frankenstein Monster? July 15, 2001 "More Spending is not a Reform Strategy," F. C. Spinney's Commentary #419. The Pentagon's latest "emergency" request, for $18.4 billion, is twice the entire defense budget of Russia, and reports are that another $30 billion is in the works. Yet, because of chaos in the process, the latest defense reviews are unlikely to produce a coherent strategy for investing this money in any meaningful transformation. July 12, 2001The Richards Report: A Swift Elusive Sword ... or ... An Alternative to "Transformation Pentagon Style", Spinney's Commentary #418, July 12, 2001. Is this the "transformation study" Andy Marshall might have done? Should have done? How to use Sun Tzu's Art of War and Boyd's Discourse to improve force effectiveness, cope with WMD and 4GW, and return defense spending to logical levels. All in this 73 page report. July 11, 2001"Analysis of Recent Polling Data on National Missile Defense," Few Americans care strongly about missile defense, and when told about the system's failures, initial support turns to opposition. Most don't believe that NMD is more important than fixing Medicare or Social Security, or even other priorities within the military. July 9, 2001. Reprinted by permission of the Council for a Livable World, which commissioned the poll. (80 KB MS Word) The New Craft of Intelligence, by Robert David Steele. What type of intelligence, and intelligence community, do we need when the threat is primarily fourth generation? June 28, 2001"Congressional Aide Finds Spending On 'Core Readiness' In Decline" by Elaine M. Grossman, Inside the Pentagon, June 28, 2001. Succinct coverage of the "Spartacus Report," detailing how spending on core readiness has declined despite huge increases in defense spending, much of which was justified on the need to improve readiness. June 25, 2001Defense budget trends, showing the effects of the proposed FY 01 supplemental and FY 02 amendment. The statement was recently made that no truck bomb ever killed US soldiers in a war. Is this true? Here is the data. Since 1983, for every US service member killed by an enemy ballistic missile, more than 16 have been killed by terrorist bombs. FY 2002 Amendment. DoD background briefing on the FY 2002 budget request amendment. Details on the recent request for another $18.4 billion over and above the $310.5 billion "placeholder." Adding this to the $14.6 billion of defense-related spending in the Energy Department would make US defense spending equal to that of the next 15 largest counties combined. Secretary Rumsfeld's priorities, in testimony before congressional authorization committees, June 21, 2001. Lots of hardware. (From HILLINT) FY 2001 Supplemental House Mark-up. (From HILLINT) Ha'aretz on-line special on water as a fundamental source of conflict in the region. Extensive collection of articles on this intractable and often ignored subject. On the Ha'aretz newspaper's web site from Israel. June 13, 2001"Information on the Use of Spare Parts Funding is Lacking," GAO 01-472, June 1002 (182 KB .pdf). For FY 1999, Congress gave the Pentagon an extra $1.1 billion in emergency supplemental funds specifically earmarked for spare parts. We know that $87 million actually did go into an account for Navy aircraft spares; the rest disappeared into general operations and maintenance accounts and could have been used for most anything. "Comanche Program Objectives Need to be Revised to More Achievable Levels," latest GAO report (June 2001, 336 KB .pdf) The title pretty much says it all for this program, which began in 1983 and has been restructured five times. In the last 18 months alone, projected costs have increased over 10%. "Government at the Brink," Vol 1 (632 KB .pdf) and Vol 2 (651 KB .pdf). Report by Sen Fred Thompson (R TN), then-Chairman of the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee, June 2001. Waste and even corruption are reaching levels generally associated with third world countries. The DoD section, including problems with the financial management system, begins on p. 17 of Vol 2. Sen Charles Grassely's letter to SECDEF Rumsfeld charging fraud and mismanagement at the DoD IG. Commentaries 113, 155-413 have been published. June 7, 2001Latest Comment #412: Iron Wall or Maginot Line? June 7, 2001 Testimony of the Deputy DoD Inspector General on the unauditable state of all DoD accounts (except the Military Retirement Fund) May 8, 2001. (109 KB .pdf file) FY 2001 Supplemental Appropriations Request, detailing the Bush Administration's $6.5 Billion request that includes $6.1 billion in new DoD spending. Latest data on the Israeli - Palestinian conflict (the "Al Aqsa Intifada.") Spirit, Blood, and Treasure (see below) has been published and should be available at your local bookstore. Background note on the situation in Croatia. Latest report to the European Parliament (March 2000). "Report on Travel to U.S. Aircraft Manufacturers (Lockheed-Martin, Boeing, Bell-Textron)" November 1998, by a member of the Congressional Staff (attached to comment 223) Commentaries 169, 172, 199, 216, and 220 - 374 have been published. June 22, 2000US, NATO, and Other Allied Military Spending (1999). Amounts to roughly 5 times all conceivable threatsRussia, China, and the "States of Concern" (Rogue States)combined. The Plans/Reality Mismatch into the New Millennium. The upcoming train wreck between social spending (general health care, Social Security, Medicare) and defense can be avoided, but not ignored. June 12, 2000"The F-22 Program: Fact Vs. Fiction." by retired USAF fighter pilot, designer, and tactician, E. E. Riccioni. "Update on the Situation of Ethnic Minorities in Kosovo, February - May 2000" Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). "Kosovo: Review and Analysis of Policy Objectives, 1998-June 1999," by Julie Kim, Congressional Research Service, July 1999. "Culture Wars," MAJ Donald E. Vandergriff, USA "The Roots And Fruits Of Terrorism," By Harold A. Gould, Visiting Professor of South Asian Studies, University of Virginia Joint Vision 2010, then-Chairman of the JCS, Gen John M. Shalikashvili's vision. "Army Professionalism, The Military Ethic, and Officership in the 21st Century," By Professor Don Snider, Major John Nagl, and Major Tony Pfaff of the US Military Academy at West Point. New Section on Fixing the Accounting System (and Why We Have to do it):
Commentaries 169, 176, 199, 212, and 235 - 370 have been published. May 9, 2000:New articles in Fourth Generation Warfare, including
Commentaries 169, 199, and 257 - 353 have been posted. May 1, 2000:New Sections: Global & Strategic Issues, which covers topics that transcend any particular region or type of conflict, and Fourth Generation Warfare, with articles about this elusive subject and links to its current participants. "Genghis John," Chuck Spinney's eulogy from the Naval Institute Proceedings. "The Strategic Importance of Boyd and the OODA Loop," an excerpt from Colin Gray's new book, Modern Strategy. "Humanitarian Military Intervention," By Jules Lobel and Michael Ratner "UN War Crimes Tribunal Delivers a Travesty of Justice," By Robert M. Hayden Commentaries 169, 199, and 278 - 353 have been posted. April 23, 2000:"From Air Force Fighter Pilot to Marine Corps Warfighting: Colonel John Boyd, His Theories on War, and their Unexpected Legacy," by Maj Jeffrey L. Cowan, USAF. Maj Cowan's master's thesis at the USMC Command & Staff College provides a most readable introduction to Boyd's career and the evolution of his strategy. Also, we've just posted "Genghis John," Chuck Spinney's 1997 tribute to Col Boyd and his contributions (originally published in the US Naval Institute Proceedings). Chief of Staff's Leadership Survey. Sixteen of the famous 64 leadership surveys of students at the Army's Command and Staff College. A no-holds-barred view of senior leadership by mid-career officers on the fast track. Breaking the Phalanx, COL Doug MacGregor's briefing based on his best-selling book. Why organization counts and what the Army can do to get ready for the 21st Century.
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