According to the July 3 Cleveland Plain Dealer, President Barack Obama said something very interesting last week. He told the AP that he has “a very narrow definition of success when it comes to our national security interests” in Afghanistan. “And that is that al-Qa’ida and its affiliates cannot set up safe havens from which to attack Americans.”
Well. If his words were reported accurately and he really means them, President Obama may have built the golden bridge we need to get out. That definition of success may be attainable.
But here’s the rub. Adoption of a realistic strategic goal in Afghanistan means reversing a decision the administration reportedly made last March, at Hillary’s insistence. Hillary demanded, and reportedly got, a commitment to the opium dream of a “secular, democratic, peaceful” Afghanistan.
Has President Obama already figured out he was had by the Clintons? Will he dare assert his authority over Hillary? How long will he stick to his guns when the Clintons ramp up a guerilla campaign against him among Democratic activists?
As I said in my last column, problems in court politics are often more difficult than problems on the battlefield. Dumping the Clinton’s dreamy-eyed idealism in foreign policy in favor of realistic strategic objectives promises a battle royal at court. Of course, Obama may have just been musing aloud, in which case Hillary will soon set the record straight. But if the President really meant what he said and sticks to it, it would represent a major step forward.
Unfortunately, the July 4 Plain Dealer reported another step back. In a story on the Marine Corps’ “big push” in Helmand province, the paper said that
The stiffest resistance occurred in the district of Garmser, where Taliban fighters holed up in a walled housing compound engaged in an eight-hour gunbattle with troops from the 2nd Battalion of the 8th Marine Regiment. The Marines eventually requested a Harrier fighter jet to drop a 500-pound bomb on the compound, which was believed to have killed all fighters inside.
This time, the problem was not Americans failing to understand that in 4GW, airstrikes work to our defeat. The PD continued,
The commanders directing the huge Marine security operation here had said they hoped not to rely on airstrikes…Officers here noted with pride that they had not used bombs or artillery in the first 24 hours of the mission.
But they were left with little choice after the insurgents refused to surrender.
It is hard to question the details of a tactical situation from half a world away, based on a press report. There may be reasons I cannot see from here why the airstrike was unavoidable. But from what was reported, it seems to have resulted from an all-too-frequent problem with American infantry, a narrow tactical repertoire that offers few options.
Anybody out there ever hear of a siege? That housing compound might not have had infinite supplies of food or water. Must we be in such a hurry to resolve every situation that sieges are not an option? They are, after all, one of the oldest techniques in war (read the Iliad).
Just how sure are we that the guys we killed were Taliban? Yes, they were shooting at us. But lots of Afghans do that. Local Pashtuns will fight us just because we’re there. If we kill locals in an airstrike, we create a blood feud with all their relatives.
Did anyone try to talk to those guys? A siege opens that opportunity. It also gives us a chance to talk to other locals and try to find out who we are fighting. Remember, the Taliban (if they were Taliban) is not a monolithic organization. Like almost all 4GW forces, it is a militia. Militia will often deal.
Ah, the Marines will reply, we told you they refused to surrender. Should surrender or death be our opponents’ only options? Whoever it was we were fighting put up what one Marine commander called “a hell of a fight.” No Americans were killed in the process. So why not let them march out with the honors of war? That would tell the Pashtun that we are men of honor who respect other men of honor. Not a bad message to send when going into a new 4GW neighborhood.
I know many Marines will sniff at this, quoting their favorite line, “No better friend, no worse enemy.” In response, I suggest a modification for 4GW: we should add the option, “No better enemy.” “Better” in this context does not mean “easy.” Rather, it means “honorable.” Against an opponent such as the Pashtun, whose culture puts a high value on honor, being an honorable enemy may be important when it comes time to talk.
In turn, if Marines are to be seen by the Pashtun as an honorable enemy, we may want to reconsider slaughtering — with weapons such as airstrikes against which they have no defense — those who have fought bravely. “Better enemies” respect their enemies, and themselves, too much to do that sort of thing.
William S. Lind, expressing his own personal opinion, is Director for the Center for Cultural Conservatism for the Free Congress Foundation.
To interview Mr. Lind, please contact (no e-mail available):
Mr. William S. Lind
Free Congress Foundation
1423 Powhatan Street, # 2
Alexandria, Virginia 22314
Direct line: 703 837-0483
Comments are welcome; please observe our comment policy.
]]>Fabius Maximus examines the health of the Constitution in a brilliant post, a revision of one that he did three years ago. Whether you agree with his thesis or not, he raises important issues and concludes on an optimistic note.
If the Constitution is dead, then we, as officers, have failed in our most fundamental duty, and all we can do is hope that his optimism is justified. I fear, however, that the result may be that we get to try out COIN theory in the one arena where it has historically worked.
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]]>Six Reasons Insurgencies Lose: A Contrarian View, by Donald A. Stoker.
Insurgencies generally lose, not win. The Dupuy Institute, using a database for an ongoing research project that includes 63 post-World War II insurgencies, found that the insurgents only win 41% of the time.
I would have thought that they lose more often than that because they often lose against a government that either accommodates them or eliminates them. Remember, this is the war of the weak against the strong, so the fact that they win better than two times out of five should be sobering.
Another point to consider is that one must choose one’s time frame carefully: A number of the insurgencies Stoker mentions, while initially suppressed, were ultimately successful. This is protracted war and one has to take the long view (TX Hammes explains this phenomenon as well as I’ve seen it done in The Sling and the Stone).
Still, even with all that, a 59% chance of success is nothing that would give me any confidence in COIN (I entitled one of my books Certain to Win for a reason).
There is, however, a more fundamental problem with this paper. What Stoker and by extension the Dupuy Institute don’t do is break out rebellions–inside a country against the ruling government–and “wars of national liberation” against an outside occupier. Absent this distinction, the analysis is at best misleading.
Clearly we are in the latter category in both Iraq and Afghanistan. To lump our experience in with the Greeks or British and Malays renders the conclusion meaningless. And one could argue that some of his failed insurgencies, such as the Boer War and the Filipino Insurrection, were ultimately successful.
Still … 41%, including all the “domestic” insurgencies, where the odds are much lower than that. If you were leading the country, would you have committed our troops and several trillion dollars of our treasure (which would come in handy right now) for what is at best coin toss odds?
As a side note — using the number “41%” as a probability is dubious practice, of course, because the population of insurgencies is hardly homogeneous. However, the fact that a lot of insurgencies succeed, and those against occupiers succeed pretty often, should have factored into our national decision-making.
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]]>Transforming Chaos and Conflict– James Gimian and Barry Boyce, of Shambhala Sun magazine and the Denma Translation Group.
Jim and Barry gave an abbreviated version of this program at the Boyd 2008 Conference last December. Although I’ve studied this stuff for well over 30 years, their approach gave me new insight into the Sun Tzu material and by extension, on Boyd’s place in the Sun Tzu lineage. I’m finishing my second (in some places third and fourth) reading of their new book, The Rules of Victory, and if I can put it down long enough, will post a review.
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]]>The advent of General Stanley McChrystal as America’s overall commander in Afghanistan appears to be good news. He seems to understand that in this kind of war, the rule must be, “First, do no harm.” Associated Press recently reported him as saying that his measure of effectiveness will be “the number of Afghans shielded from violence, not the number of militants killed.” Unusually, he seems to include American and NATO violence in his calculation, since he has ordered a drastic cutback in airstrikes. Heavy American reliance on airstrikes has probably done more than anything else to win the war for the Taliban.
But history is littered with the failures of promising new generals; “Fighting Joe” Hooker somehow comes to mind. If General McChrystal is to represent any real hope that the U.S. might get out of Afghanistan with some tailfeathers intact, he must confront a host of challenges. Let’s look at just four:
In sum, General McChrystal faces a full plate. His most difficult challenges are internal, in the form of a flawed military instrument, inadequate doctrine, a neo-liberal Establishment drunk on COIN juju and strategic objectives no commander can attain. Internal challenges are often harder to overcome than those posed by the external opponent, because potential fixes run into the immovable object of court politics.
As an Army friend put it to me, until these and similar internal challenges can be met, our efforts in Afghanistan are like trying to get somewhere by riding faster on an exercise bicycle.
William S. Lind, expressing his own personal opinion, is Director for the Center for Cultural Conservatism for the Free Congress Foundation.
To interview Mr. Lind, please contact (no e-mail available):
Mr. William S. Lind
Free Congress Foundation
1423 Powhatan Street, # 2
Alexandria, Virginia 22314
Direct line: 703 837-0483
Comments are welcome; please observe our comment policy.
]]>Shock and Audit, by Rachel Morris
I’ve skimmed the series and it seems worth a more detailed read. In the meantime, the opening paragraph contains this checklist, which reads like a manifesto of the Defense Reform Movement (of which Boyd was a founding member):
But although the press touted the proposals as bold and ambitious, they sounded suspiciously like the basic budgeting tips a financial adviser would dispense if you’d lost total control of your personal expenses. The essential principles were:
- Keep track of money that comes in and goes out
- Don’t buy things you don’t need
- Don’t buy things that don’t work
- If you do buy something that doesn’t work, don’t order 200 more of them
Now, we can argue over “need.” I for one don’t feel that we need to keep a significant amount of conventional forces (particularly ships and tanks/ other armor), but there are people with reform credentials better than mine who disagree. Nonetheless, tough to argue with the other three.
Here’s another observation:Â The cumulative cost overruns, about $300 billion, of weapons now in the defense budget is more than three times the entire defense budget of China, the world’s second biggest spender on defense, and, parenthetically, a country with a nearly 14,000 mile long border, every inch of which represents a potential threat.
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]]>The current crisis in Iran is not 4GW. It is a struggle for control of a state, not an attempt to replace the state with something else. However, it could prove a harbinger of 4GW in Iran, because what is at stake is the legitimacy of current Iranian political system.
In a manner that was cynical, blatant and remarkably stupid, the Khamenei/Ahmadinejad regime in effect toyed with its own legitimacy. Nightwatch for June 19 quotes Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei as saying in his Friday public sermon, “There is 11 million vote difference. How can one rig 11 million votes?”
The answer is, “Not without people taking notice.” Stalin, whose cynicism was legendary - one of his remarks was, “The death of one man is a tragedy; the death of a million men is a statistic” - also said, “What is important is not who votes. What is important is who counts the votes.” But throughout the history of the Soviet Union, the Communist Party was careful to seem to take elections with the utmost seriousness. It knew the pretence was important for its legitimacy.
In contrast, the Iranian regime in effect laughed as it rigged its election’s outcome, saying to the Iranian people and the world, “Rig the elections? Of course we rigged the elections. What are you going to do about it, sucker?” The fact that the outcome was announced within three hours of the polls closing suggests they did not count the votes at all. The Interior Ministry was just told what numbers to put down on the tally sheets.
Now it has blown up in the regime’s face, in the worst kind of crisis any government can face, a crisis of legitimacy. The Iranian opposition is able to say, “You did not play by the rules you wrote.” That is a powerful rallying cry anywhere in the world.
The Iranian people have rallied, by the millions, to the opposition. Iran is in the midst of the greatest upheaval since the revolution that overthrew the Shah.
Like governments everywhere, Khamenei seems unable to grasp that he faces a crisis not merely of leadership but of legitimacy. Had he grasped that essential fact, he would have professed to be “shocked, shocked” by the electoral fraud, dumped Ahmadinejad and devoted himself to showing Iran’s political system works.
Instead, he has decided to keep himself and Ahmadinejad in power by force. Today’s Washington Post quotes the opposition’s leader, Mir Hossein Mousavi, as saying, “Shooting at the people, militarizing the city, scaring the people, provoking them, and displaying power are all the result of the unlawfulness we’re witnessing today.” Force may keep the current regime in power, but it also completes the destruction of its legitimacy.
Fourth Generation theory warns that when a government loses its legitimacy and attempts to retain power by naked force, it weakens the state itself. Iran has been a relatively stable state. But there is no guarantee it will remain so. Iran includes many different ethnic groups, not just Persians. If the opposition, which is loyal to the Iranian state, is suppressed by force, Iranians may start to transfer their loyalty away from the state.
The current crisis in Iran also reveals a fracture Fourth Generation theory sometimes overlooks, a break on urban/rural lines. Ahmadinejad is genuinely popular in much of rural Iran. His rural strength might have allowed him to win an election where the votes were actually counted. The opposition, in turn, appears to be almost entirely urban. Its urban strength is what has allowed it to contest the announced electoral results with mass marches.
Urban/rural splits were common before the state arose. They sometimes led to bloody wars, usually in the form of peasant’s revolts. Exactly how they might play out in a Fourth Generation world is difficult to guess. Iran may offer an interesting test case.
But the larger lesson from events in Iran is one this column has harped on: few if any governments are able to perceive a crisis of legitimacy. Any governing system in time becomes a closed system, into which the question of legitimacy is not allowed to penetrate. To raise it is lese majesté. So long as that remains the case, the state system will grow more fragile.
William S. Lind, expressing his own personal opinion, is Director for the Center for Cultural Conservatism for the Free Congress Foundation.
To interview Mr. Lind, please contact (no e-mail available):
Mr. William S. Lind
Free Congress Foundation
1423 Powhatan Street, # 2
Alexandria, Virginia 22314
Direct line: 703 837-0483
Comments are welcome; please observe our comment policy.
]]>Secession is in the air. In Texas, a Republican governor has dared breathe the word. Vermont has an active and growing secessionist movement. Oregon, Washington and British Columbia already call themselves Cascadia. Last weekend’s Wall Street Journal led off with a piece on secession. The author, Paul Starobin, wrote that:
The present-day American Goliath may turn out to be a freak of a waning age of politics and economics as conducted on a super-sized scale - too large to make any rational sense…
Is this all mere fancy, another amusing idea with which to wile away
the summer? Fourth Generation theory suggests there is more to it than that. The crisis of legitimacy of the state has not passed America by. Washington pretends to offer “democracy,” but both parties are largely one party, the Establishment party. Its game is remaining the Establishment and enjoying the pleasures thereof, not governing the country. The only politics that count are court politics; America outside the beltway exists only as an annoying distraction. As both the economy and the culture crash, the Establishment says, “What is that to us?”
A collapse of the American state is not impossible. But the lines along which most secessionists see it breaking up are overly optimistic. Paul Starobin writes in the Journal,
The most hopeful prospect for the USA, should the decentralization impulse prove irresistible, is for Americans to draw on their natural inventiveness and democratic tradition by patenting a formula for getting the job done in a gradual and cooperative way.
Fat chance.
Instead of a restored Vermont Republic, Cascadia and perhaps a new Confederacy, if America breaks up it is likely to do so along non-geographic lines. Fourth Generation theory suggests that the new primary identities for which people are likely to vote, work and fight will not be geographical. Rather, they will be cultural, religious, racial or ethnic, ideological, etc. Following the sorts of massacres, ethnic cleansings, pogroms and genocides such Fourth Generation civil wars usually involve, new geographically defined states may emerge. But their borders will derive from cultural divides more than geographic ones.
The fact that a second American civil war would be nastier than the first — itself no picnic — does not mean it won’t happen. That depends on whether the Washington Establishment can recognize it has a legitimacy problem, get its act together and provide competent governance. It is currently failing that test, and I expect it to continue to fail. Any member of the Establishment who dares subordinate court politics to the good of the nation or advocates more than very modest change quickly finds he is no longer a member of the Establishment.
I spent most of last week at the Congress on the New Urbanism, which I have attended for many years. New Urbanism seeks to build new villages, towns and urban neighborhoods as alternatives to suburban sprawl, an essentially conservative endeavor. This time, something new came to the fore: making such communities agriculturally self-sufficient. Why? Because there is growing recognition among New Urbanists and others that only a local food supply may be secure as things fall apart. A few people at the Congress were looking toward the next logical step: giving such communities an ability to defend themselves. If the future brings the end of the empire, how do we get ready for the Dark Ages?
Again, if this sounds fanciful, Fourth Generation war theory says it is not. It is by no means inevitable, but it is one possible outcome of the Establishment’s misrule.
My most recent book, The Next Conservatism, talks at some length about these matters. In the mid-1990s, I wrote a novel, Victoria, about an American Fourth Generation civil war and its aftermath. It never found a publisher, perhaps because the idea seemed so outlandish, more likely because it is a face shot at Political Correctness. Political Correctness, which is really the cultural Marxism of the Frankfurt School, has lost none of its ability to intimidate publishers. But the idea of an American break-up is no longer off the charts. It may yet prove time for President Davis to think of returning to Richmond, and for New Urbanists to design some good castles.
]]>He maintains that “The enemy in Afghanistan today (and in Iraq and Pakistan) is not Islamism or jihadism. It’s tribalism. Think of this series as a crash course on tribalism.”
Retired Marine Colonel T.X. Hammes, author of The Sling and the Stone and who has a number of pieces on this site, notes:
Steven Pressfield is known to a generation of Marines for his book The Gates of Fire. In that work, he captured the essence of why western soldiers fight. With this video series, Pressfield draws on his research for The Afghan Campaign to provide essential insights into why tribal warriors fight. He discusses the unchanging aspects of two millenniums of western experiences fighting Afghan tribal warriors. He explains why, for very good reasons, western ideas about government simply do not apply to these tribal peoples.
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]]>The recent fire/counterfire between President Obama and former Vice President Dick Cheney over Guantanamo, the prisoners held there and techniques used in their interrogation revealed a distressing ignorance in the White House. Specifically, it revealed that Obama and his advisors are ignorant of military theory.
Cheney won the debate by drawing the usual Republican distinction, that between doing what is necessary for national security and being nice. If Republicans are allowed to frame the issue that way, they will always win. But in fact, theirs is a false position. We do not have to choose between doing what works in the “war on terrorism” and doing what is morally right. The two are the same.
The military theory that allows us to see this is the work of Colonel John Boyd, USAF. Boyd argued that war is fought on three levels: the moral, the mental and the physical. Of the three, the moral level is the most powerful, the physical level is the least powerful and the mental level lies between the other two.
Cheney argued that we should sacrifice the moral level to the physical. We should engage in torture because it may gain us information that could prevent another attack like 9/11. That could be the case.
But Boyd’s theory would respond that the defeat we suffer on the moral level by adopting a policy of torture will outweigh any benefits torture might bring us on the physical level of war. How so? By pumping up the “terrorists” will, cohesion and ability to cooperate while diminishing our own.
In effect, both our enemies and our allies will come to see us as evil. That enables enemies to recruit, raise money, and generate new operations while we must focus internally on papering over cracks in our coalitions. They gain greater harmony, while we face increased friction, Boyd’s dread “many non-cooperative centers of gravity.” They pull together, we are pulled apart.
For President Obama and other opponents of torture, the important fact here is that, if we understand what Boyd is saying, we no longer face the choice Cheney offered. We need not choose between doing what military necessity commands and acting morally. Military necessity itself demands that we act morally. The real choice is between doing what wins wars and loses wars, with Cheney arguing for the latter. Suddenly, it is the Republicans who are on the wrong side of the “national security” issue.
Let me offer President Obama three pieces of advice, all intended to escape the Republicans’ trap:
First, when this issue comes up again (and it will), go to your NSC director, General Jim Jones, for advice. He is familiar with Boyd’s work. Your political people are not.
Second, apply Boyd’s insight about the three levels of war not only to the question of torture but to everything we do in places like Iraq and Afghanistan. At present, we are sacrificing the moral level to the physical in lots of ways, which is to say we are defeating ourselves. A good start would be a Presidential order forbidding air strikes on populated areas and demanding they be restricted elsewhere to situations where our troops would otherwise be overrun.
Three, solve the issue of detainees at Guantanamo and elsewhere by designating all of them as what they are, namely Prisoners of War. International law specifies how POWs must be cared for. POW camps on American soil are nothing new; we have had them in every war. POWs may be held until the war is over or exchanged. This is what the Bush administration should have done from the outset, a point Democrats can make. The current mess was created by Republicans.
Politicians usually roll their eyes when military theory is mentioned, deeming it too esoteric for “the real world.” As President Obama’s inability to answer Cheney effectively shows, nothing could be further from the truth. The Bush administration led America into two quagmires, in Iraq and Afghanistan, because of its ignorance of the theory of Fourth Generation war. If the Obama White House continues as ignorant as its predecessor, it will set the country up for fresh disasters. A wise President will prefer to learn from theory than from failure.
William S. Lind, expressing his own personal opinion, is Director for the Center for Cultural Conservatism for the Free Congress Foundation.
To interview Mr. Lind, please contact (no e-mail available):
Mr. William S. Lind
Free Congress Foundation
1423 Powhatan Street, # 2
Alexandria, Virginia 22314
Direct line: 703 837-0483
Comments are welcome; please observe our comment policy.
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