Dec.02.2008
1:17 pm
by Chet
Implications of Mumbai
J.B. Longley
2 December 2008
Republished with permission
[Jim Longley is Executive Director of the Advanced Technical Intelligence Association, formerly the MASINT Association.]
From time to time, events occur that compel us to pause and seriously reflect on their potential significance to the technical intelligence community. The Mumbai attack may present one of those rare moments.
John Robb, an Air Force veteran of the special operations community has summarized the ability of the Mumbai terrorists to use readily available, off-the-shelf technology to mount their vicious attack. Blackberrys were used in real time to, apparently, hack into and monitor the police response to the carnage; cell phones were used to coordinate tactics. Notably, after cable television lines into the building were cut, the attackers accessed local and worldwide media coverage, including the forces mounted against them, over the internet. E-mail was sent to taunt the local media (and the public).
In one of the articles referenced by Robb, Noah Shactman of Wired.com reminds us of former U.S. Central Command chief Gen. John Abizaid’s complaint that, “with their Radio Shack stockpile of communications gear, ‘this enemy is better networked than we are’.”
As John writes, “…these guerrillas were better connected to both the tactical and strategic environment than any US and other developed nation military personnel have ever been (the opposition believes in the strategic corporal, why don’t we?)”. John’s book, Brave New War, and his blog, http://GlobalGuerrillas.com, provide commentary on the modern phenomenon of, what he refers to as, ‘open source’ warfare. The reference to the “strategic corporal” refers to Marine Gen. Chuck Krulak’s prescient article, “The Strategic Corporal: Leadership in the Three Block War”; written in 1999; also cited below.
The urgency of the cyber threat and the extent to which readily available technology is being used against us to heinous effect presents serious challenges to the nation and to our community. Not to mention, the difficulties we face in countering these tactics by providing useful information quickly and down to the lowest levels of the chain of command.
(Note: tomorrow is the last day to register for next week’s technical intelligence conference, especially the classified sessions on the cyber challenges we face; cf. http://www.masint.org/.)
While there’s still far more to this than might be readily evident, John’s blog, along with the several links, provided below, raise highly provocative questions about the nature of the threat — and the challenges we face in seeking to confront it — that bear very careful thought.
——
References in John’s blog:
How Gadgets Helped Mumbai Attackers
Noah Shachtman, Wired.com, December 01, 2008, 9:39:23 AM
http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/12/the-gagdets-of.html
Terrorists turn technology into weapon of war in Mumbai
Their battle fatigues are jeans, T-shirts and trainers. They are the new breed of
terrorist - using everyday technology as a weapon of war.
Courier Sunday Mail (Australia), November 29, 2008 11:00pm
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24726093-954,00.html
The Strategic Corporal: Leadership in the Three Block War
Gen. Charles C. Krulak, Marines Magazine, January 1999
http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/usmc/strategic_corporal.htm
John Robb’s blog: http://GlobalGuerrillas.com
Another reference not cited by John but informative, nonetheless (despite the
embarrasing security breach and the “CYA” tenor of the story):
U.S. Warned India in October of Potential Terror Attack
NSA Now Tracking Captured Phones, U.S. Connections
Richard Espositon, Brian Ross and Pierre Thomas, ABC News, December 1, 2008
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=6368013&page=1
[DNI editor's note:Â To which I would add Pat Lang's recent column, "Calm down Over Mumbai, Please."]
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A’HOY, questions. Why didn’t the Tamil Tigers every try this? How many guards were taken out? Were is the footage that supposedly helped the terrorist ( all the generalist I saw were on the same corner, oh so dose LOL). What info was used from the police web site, (lots of reinforcements on the way LOL) surly it all has not been cleaned up ( gate closed after electron cows got out/used). Why haven’t the terrorist been identified like the 9-11 suspects hours after attack? G-day!
A’HOY, how would one of two or three terrorist in any given group find time to surf the web for info while fighting dozens to hundreds of commandos. What dose one learn from a fellow terrorist on a satellite phone in some other battle miles away. If they used scouts that could be helpful but we have no mention of that. How was the one live POW captured.
So where is the link to what web site that gives any useful info on any on going battle field today right now. Lets say Gaza strip.
paraphrase; “It’s clear these guerrillas were better connected to tactical and strategic environment than any US and other developed nation military personnel have ever been”.
I simply don’t understand this statement at all. Maybe John was talking in terms of internet savvy.
G-day!
âwith their Radio Shack stockpile of communications gear, âthis enemy is better networked than we areâ.â
More evidence that the U. S. military equipment procurement system is geared toward supporting defense contractors and providing second carreers for retired generals and admirals, not toward obtaining the best equipment.
AâHOY, On link strategic corporal; âThe rapid diffusion of technology, (IMO more and more are connected, vast majority are not truly computer savvy) the growth of a multitude of transnational factors, (IMO complicating things for terrorist not simplifying them) and the consequences of increasing globalization and economic interdependence, (IMO suppose to be a peace rein forcer not divisive) have coalesced to create national security challenges remarkable for their complexityâ. (IMO the one thing remarkable for its complexity is the myriad of new terms being churned out). Examples, Military operations other-than-war, Mid-intensity conflict. Krulak; âThe three block war is not simply a fanciful metaphor for future conflicts — it is a realityâ. (IMO they all are hoop and hype unnecessary filler buster. No helos or UAVs little to no Communications with adjacent units much less division, now thatâs a three block war situation, aka a typical day in WWII.) Good point senor tomas. G-day!
Practically The first thing they did was assasinate the local head
of security intelligence, and several of his staff.
If that’s not kicking *ss and taking names what is ?
Now think of that in comparison with the futile, IE; pathetic efforts of the combined resourches of the western powers to capture Bin laden.
ST nailed it, and yes Virginia, we are in a lot of trouble.
M
AâHOY; Max my apologies for never giving any body an inch. With the anti terrorist unit leader, I heard video showing the crowd on the corner being sprayed by terrorist in the security van, had just left the cafĂ©. (IMO they went to the area due to its prestige spotted the van and just got lucky. Someone on CNN also suggested that.
http://blog.wired.com etc link; Outside of Leopold’s Cafe, “one gunmen seemed to be talking on a mobile phone even as he used his other hand to fire off rounds,” (IMO LOL no ear peaces how high tech)
âHe and Mr. Khan raced to an exit with many other diners and ran down the stairs, which took them outside. (IMO well trained Ter. would have bobby trapped exits before starting the shooting, like noting direction enemy may seek cover before starting to shoot at them). Blackberries GPS (IMO this is why Obama canât have one right; it would give his location away. All that junk about privacy. Itâs like the Beast (Presidentâs Cadillac) it dose not have a commercial Lojack). G-day!
The success of the Mumbai Jihadist terror attacks tells me more about the state of Hindu security forces than anything else.
In many cases the Hindu law enforcement officers on the scene ran and hid rather than engage a pair of gun men as evidenced by witnesses at the train station shoot out and other locales. Doesn’t matter if they have a blackberry or cell phone when the opposition takes a powder.
In some video I saw anti-terrorist commandos firing their weapons blindly over their heads for fear of being shot at.
10 hours to take out a pair of terrorists at the Jewish temple with anti-terrorist commandos? Excuse me, but unless those two men were bullet proof Delta troopers even a American metro SWAT team could take them out in short order.
In the end what I can infer from the Mumbai operations is simply this: that training and equipping first responders is the most important things one can do to minimize and neutralize such murderous rampages.
The article implies that an effective military would have to routinely procure major amounts of commercial electronics to “compete” with “networked terrorists.”
There are a couple of issues here.
First, most commercial electronics have a “lifespan” of 2 or 3 years. Can the US DoD procure such hardware at that kind of rate? Not sure it is feasible.
Secondly there are reliability problems with commercial electronics. Should the DoD multiply their purchase by 2X to account for reliability shortfalls?
IMO the real problem here is people. The people who need/use the hardware that is procured by DoD have little say in how the assets should function. The terrorists buy what they need to get the job done. The US DoD has a far more convoluted acquisition system.
This is an interesting article, and makes good “food for thought.” Not sure the comparison between the US military and a small cell of bad guys is “good.”
Ahoy,
Right Walt, the Indian forces are stoopid,
not smart like us.
http://www.antiwar.com/updates/?articleid=13854
December 4, 2008
Thursday: 2 GIs, 1 UK Soldier, 98 Iraqis Killed; 177 Iraqis Wounded
AâHOY, paraphrasing Krulak; By 2020, 85% of world’s inhabitants will move to coastal cities lacking infrastructure to support them. Ethnic, nationalist, and economic tensions will explode. (IMO nothing unique Vs the pass 50 years). Widespread availability of sophisticated weapons etc will “level the playing field” negating our tech superiority. (IMO all I see is lots of RPGs and AK-47s). The lines separating the levels of war, (IMO have all been defined since at least the end of WWII) and distinguishing combatant from “non-combatant,” will blur, (IMO no one seems to bother or care once the shooting starts) and adversaries, confounded by our “conventional” superiority, will resort to asymmetrical means (IMO i.e. fight in ways best countered by old fashion police work). Further complicating the situation will be the ubiquitous media whose presence will mean that all future conflicts will be acted out before an international audience. (IMO ubiquitous LOL yet all reporting the same facts, what about Zoriah the photojournalist banded form any USMC media pool for publishing photos of dead Marines.) G-day!
The DoD does buy commercial off the shelf hardware. All the network stuff is off the sehlf these days.
The DoD ‘radio shacks’ stuff. All the time, and the off the shelf stuff is replaced with newer just as uselss stuff every two or so years.
However, unlike the jihadists the stuff is not bought for any specific mission but to build up “capabilities” based a on “gap” analysis. Capabilities Risk review and Assessment (CRRA) see CJCS 3170.01.
Unfortunately, the guys doing the CRRAs see only jobs in the sites or “solutions”y to cover the gaps.
Worse the gaps have nothing to do with jihadists.
Yes, the stuff is unreliable, uses lots of retired guys to run it and other than the jobs is useless.
The US is into high tech off the shelf radio shack maginot lines.
But it does make for lots of good jobs for the retires.
No cost to great to prevent tne jobs’ programs.
So much for jihadists…………
If someone builds fixed defenses how hard is it to overcome or go around them?
loggie20
on 05 Dec 2008 at 6:20 pm
“If someone builds fixed defenses how hard is it to overcome or go around them?”
I have no idea what you maybe talking about LG, However, I did find
this information to be of interest, perhaps it might be vaugly related ?
MaX
http://tinyurl.com/64gt7p
‘Advisers to US President-elect Barack Obama have said he favors missile defence in principle but the program, a flagship policy of the Bush Administration’
http://tinyurl.com/6rjftn
“MOSCOW, (AFP) - Russia is developing missiles designed to avoid being hit by space-based missile defence systems that could be deployed by the United States, a top Russian general was quoted as saying Monday.”
“”Development is now under way on the combat outfitting of missiles whose flight falls outside the range of space-based missile defence systems,” Nikolai Solovtsov, the commander of Russia’s missile forces, told Interfax news agency.”"
http://tinyurl.com/58mdat
“”You fly NATO planes near our country’s borders. Why? We begin strengthening our air defences. This is pushing a mini arms race,” Lukashenko said in an exclusive interview in the presidential administration in central Minsk.”"
http://tinyurl.com/6hwn9w
‘President-Elect Barack Obama can get over $28 billion for new programs by cutting Cold War nuclear weapons. That could help save the auto industry, or finance anti-terrorism efforts, or rebuild the Army and Marine Corps crippled by the Iraq War.’
AâHOY, logie interesting, your last reminds me of âthe more high tech easier to counterâ
dosco 2 -3 year life span; good point, IMO the short life span (i.e. everything changing scam, like different car model gadgets piecemealed out over years) IMO works against terrorist every time one must buy new equip there is a chance they can be identified. Buying more than one person can use drawls attention, even private dealers like gun dealers would be monitored. Holiday shoppers like airport traffic are not difficult to sort out and track the out of towers. Democracy Now Dec. 5 / 08 program; according to Committee to protect journalist (CPJ) 56 web journalist world wide are jailed, âmost people on web blog about personal B.S.â so IMO percentage wise it is very high number. I also believe there are lots of innovative filter systems being used too. Example are all web sites really shown on everyoneâs computer that do a goolge search? On my questions if most canât be answered now, days after Mumbai I question any oneâs suggestion that one can get useful info in real time. G-day!
A’HOY, just realized I goofed on loggie20 call sign, my apologies! G-day!
AâHOY, dosco; your point on people is right on and a very good example of how the system knows what is needed however those setting the policies just donât care.
Source Tri â F (Fragmented Fighting Facts, i. e. my own personal notes); On logistics, Principals; they are used to evaluate and monitor concepts and methods. 1) Unity of purpose â key words or phases, cooperative effort, integration of actions and ideas to produce a mutual understanding between R&D and users. 2) Viability - able to exits. Staying power. Emphasize cost, economically sustainable. 3) Resourcefulness, develop aptitude, innovation, imagination and ingenuity. Be proactive not reactive. Joke, when did Noah built the ark, before the rain. Simper Paratus (always prepared) make due with what you have. Indigenous supplies. Cannibalizing equipment, living off land. Itâs all right in the FMs. Note my post; On war 281 on 05 Nov. 2008. G-day!
[...] Continue Reading » [...]
Newjarheaddean,
I appreciate you reading and replying to my comment.
V/R
Max,
The interesting thing about star wars is all the tests are staged, we call them lab tests.
In the case of a test against counter measures the staged test was against one rudimentary strategy or technique. How many would a real adversary use?
The investigation the Obama team has to do is not on countermeasures, it is on the reliability of the kill chain.
What are the resources to find, identify, fix, target, engage and alert target civil defense when the kill chain fails.
I am not read in on the star wars kill chain however, being a loggie, with a study of reliability (likelihood the thing will get through a scenario) science, I suggest that the reliability of each node in the kill chain will be lucky to be 80% ready to shoot with a 20% failure to complete the individual node. (That is the way they are supposed to spec the things, but I’ve never seen it, too expensive or someone else is designing that part and not talking to us)
As a result the “engage” mode will necessitate 5 launches to assure one missile reaches target and still have a 80% reliability.
The system may work, but its inherent reliability and other effects will make it useless and really expensive.
The idea of killing a useless really expensive (lots of jobs in companies which cannot perform, but DoD retirees need them jobs so if the US really needs them someday who cannot perform: the reason the US cannot let GM and Chrysler fail) system would be new to the military industrial complex.
MV 22 Osprey was such and the Fall 2000 DOT&E report stated it was not economical, nor very good at its missions. Being politically correct they did not use the fail word, hwever a reader with no stock in Boeing would say “what the heck?”
However, the thing that slowed the production down was the New River crew getting killed in Dec 2000.
It will be interesting to see if the military industrail complex is treated differently with the new administration.
Change!!
AâHOY,
Courier Sunday Mail (Australia), link; âAgain police responded, including t/head of Mumbai’s Anti-Terror Squad (ATS), Hemant Karkare, who was shot dead outside t/hospital along w/2 senior officersâ. Well I was wrong on that one!
Source ? most likely x mag; Near space a fertile research area âit was surprising to us how many folks were out thereâ. (my pt. no mention of US military using it) T/vertical dimensions 12 miles of altitude close to the internationally accepted upper limits of controlled air space. Up to 62 mi altitude lower limits of space. Air to thin to support flight to thick 4 Sat. to maintain orbit. Gravity also to strong. Pros- Compared to traditional space cost less money, there r fewer restrictions, R&D is reduced & technology is available off t/shelf. Sys. come on line much faster. Low threat high pay off. Stealthy, above rg of lots of threats. 20 times closer to earth than LEO satellites, which hv short window x. System more responsive & persistent than space assist. Geo-stationary Sat. persistent but not pervasive. Near space sys unblinking for mouths/persistent, could b used 4 closer views/pervasive or as relay stations. Also to direct Sat. as ty come over horizon. Bio degradable vehicles & payloads. 1 con to sys retrieval, note homing pigeon sys. Near space might hv mirror to reflect ground or airborne lasers for harassment or kinetic damage of foeâs eq in near space. G-day!
AâHOY;
Globalguerrilla link; (LeT) — an Islamic social system that operates as a state w/n a state w/n Pakistan. Non-state group (NSG) has its own foreign policy, including attacks on foreign nations.
(IMO like Exxon/Mobil).
NSG gains strong legitimacy w/n a weak/hollow Nat. Gov. through t/delivery of basic services that Nat. gov. can’t, or won’t deliver.
(IMO sounds like lobbying which is worse w/no cover/help going to t/people).
Retaliation is nearly impossible, or made extremely complicated, due to t/fact that t/host nation has sovereignty (IMO career politicians legacy) & will b severely damaged if attacks r made.
(IMO not reelected if ty donât vote in t/ lobbyist interest). G-day!
Newjarheaddean,
Thanks for lead on near space. Here isa little more on the possibilities.
http://www.defensetech.org/archives/001577.html
V/R
“The interesting thing about star wars is all the tests are staged, we call them lab tests.”
This of course has been going on for decades.
http://tinyurl.com/5p7yhw
http://tinyurl.com/5l5udd
The Russians amoung others are often foolish enough to compete with the USA on that contrived and bogus level.
They also “play the game.”
“Thank God those SOBs are as stupid as we are”*
*John Boyd.
But we saw what happened to them as well against a creidble 4th generational, non linear opposition in Afgainistan despite all the hyped technical superiority.
Events in India recently underscorsed how increadibly vunerable
westerinsed scociety is to 4GW in the form of terrorist tactics.
Where does this leave the mega multi billion dollar stratigic missle defence program ?
You mentioned the infamous French Maginau line of WW-2.
Boyd would approve of this paraphrased
quote;
“in war the object is to kill the enemy, everything else is BS !”*
*Baron Manfred Von Rictofen.
One of the most crucial elements of the OODA process is
correct and unbiased perception and evaluation of the situtation,
situational awareness, clear mindedness, honest, and without preconcieved notions, and /or wishfull thinking.
If you can’t get past that, as the US Mil, Ind. Complex obviously can’t, you’ve already lost.
ALREADY lost, before it even starts.
M
Max,
Worse than all the counter OODA is the ineptitude, gross negligent and disregard for reliability and other quality aspect of weapons in operations rough than the lab; the military industrial complex is worse than nothing.
At huge opportunity cost, taking real needs away from the nation.
It was good the Red Army tilted in the same realm of useless waste.
“the military industrial complex is worse than nothing.”
I agree that some among us regard the MICTTC is a genuine
and grevious liabity, no question of neutrality, or merely casual inefficency, but with the best of intentions,
including a festicous diversion, without opportunisim and malice, but in fact they constitute an enemy, more surely than Alquida, or similar non-state or state based flavor of the month,
Perhaps more aptly characterised (my choice) as a malignant precence on our scociety,
Apart from all that though, it’s great.
M
A’HOY,
loggie20 thanks for link on near space. I book marked the site.
The article i got my info from was published about two years ago best i can recall.
However judging by number of articles associated with this link (dating back to at least 2003 that I have fallowed so far) it looks like USAF is moving that way asap.
The one note about Lockheed (contract for US Army blimps going to Iraq) said the company had manufactured 8000 for commercial and military costumers to date.
It didn’t mention all the dual/cross cooperation i.e. Good Year blimp as US ear and eye in the sky lol. Uncle sam could even us micro UAV that would attach its self with out operator knowing anything. G-day!
Ahoy! my last on Krulak. far “from the flagpole” w/out t/direct supervision of senior leadership. (IMO this is flip flopping back & forth. i.e. what abt all t/modern high tech & com. advantages?) Ex. as for t/ conclusion to t/3 blk war; (IMO why not have t/interpreterâs message radioed n & relayed over speakers). âchallenges of t/chaotic post Cold War world for which t/”rules” have not yet been writtenâ. Note here Iâll paraphrase something from Strategy page; http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlead/articles/20081213.aspx “most of Am. mil. hist. consists of irregular warfare. Conventional wars were few & brief. During t/18th & 19th cent. most activity, at least in terms of yrs, was all abt IWF. Fighting Indians & frontier disorder. Even t/Am Rev. was largely IWF & often decisive irregular ops at that. T/fts 4 decades of t/20th cent. was largely IWF & peacekeeping 4 USA. Aft WW II, there was more still, including Vietnam. But through all this, t/mil. leadership focused on conventional w/f & deliberately ignored t/valuable lessons learned in generations of IWF. As if IWF was considered an exception, & conventional w/f t/only thing that mattered. Another problem w/IWF is that, when these conflicts come along, t/mil. establishment & their political counterparts, proceed as if it’s still peacetime. T/mil especially those closest to t/fighting, adopt a wartime mentality of urgency & immediacy. This causes friction with t/military bureaucracy, who don’t like 2b hustled unless there is a national emergency they can identify with”. G-day!
[CR: Thanks! The only reason I can see for not waging IWF is when winning isn't the most important factor. Although this may seem strange, it's not uncommon. Van Creveld, in virtually everything he's written since Transformation, suggests that over the span of human history, it may be the most common reason for going to war: demonstrate manhood (in the sense of virtue or to validate readiness to enter adulthood), capture prisoners for sacrifice, demonstrate the mandate of heaven (when winning through irregular means would be seen as cheating and so rob the victory of legitimacy) and so on. If these don't apply, then why in the world would you wage regular war?]
Ahoy! Chet I apologies for not fully understanding if that be the case; first of all I want to make clear, I almost never agree with anything written on Strategy page to me they are mostly all capital ( R ) wingnuts. I was just making the point that ânothing really changesâ i. e. all the lessons have been learned US needs to get on with the training.
Your post; are you suggesting there is still some form of modern chivalry? Kind of like why no self respecting Civil War soldier would use a bow and arrow (much faster loading used at close range). Do you and Van Cleveld not see 4GW and IWF as virtually the same? Iâm trying to fallow it all and Iâm sure there is some difference in the fine print technical definitions but then we could add unconventional to the list too. Iâm putting them all together. It also sounds alot like you and Mr Cleveldâs points could be used to make some kind of argument for the MIC.
Or is it like this; (source book Shoot to kill) Statement by Michael Asher an SAS member, living with a nomadic tribe in the Sahara. This tribe valued nothing so much as courage and endurance. One must take upon himself the sacred duty of revenge for an affront to the honor of his tribe. These people had no outlets for their violence, I realized there were no fist-fights to determine pecking order, no milling. Fist fights are after all a kind of game played to a set of conventions. The nomads did not know how to make a fist; they carried daggers and were not slow to use them. Every fight was a fight to the death…
[CR: Good questions -- anybody who thinks they understand 4GW just doesn't understand (to mangle a classic quote about quantum physics). You capture a lot of the flavor of what I was trying to say, that armed conflict occurs for a wide variety of reasons, and "winning," is only one of them.]
Part 2; To them, war was a limited affair, a skirmish in which 1 or 2 were killed & honor was satisfied, in a fight to defend your life, wife, land or livestock. These were things a man could fight for. I thought there was no shame in being a warrior, it had been and honorable profession since t/dawn of time. However our society had become so huge & complex that u were fighting not 4 things that really mattered but 4 abstract concepts. It was then that I learned my final lesson, fight, but do not fight another manâs war. These nomads had few of t/illusions of so called civilization. They did not as Carl Gustav Jung said, âbelieve in t/welfare state, in universal peace, in t/equality of man, in his eternal human rights, in justice, truth or the kingdom of god on earthâ. There struggle 4 existence over t/millennia had taught them the sad truth. Mans life, is a complex of inexorable opposites day & night, birth & death, good & evil. They are not sure, even that one will prevail against t/other, or that good will avenge evil. Life is a battle ground. It always has been & it always well be. If it were not so, existence would end. T/ability of people to dehumanize anyone outside their own tribe is t/sole cause of war. It is also paradoxically t/reason 4 human survival. T/world exists in harmony, but everywhere nature is in conflict tooth & claw. Conflict is what gives nature its structure. Adversity like love, makes you a person, it defines you & gives u an identity. Identity not food or land is what t/fighting is really abt. T/enemy is what makes u yourself. Without t/enemy u r nothing. G-day!