Defense and the National Interest

Like a Mirage in the Desert: U.S. exit from Iraq may recede into the time horizon

by Charles Knight

Key advisors to Barack Obama have put forward an Iraq withdrawal policy which they have labeled “conditional engagement.” In their words:

“Under this strategy, the … time hori­zon for redeployment would be negotiated with the Iraqi government and nested within a more assertive approach to regional diplomacy. The United States would make clear that Iraq and America share a common interest in achieving sustainable stability in Iraq, and that the United States is willing to help support the Iraqi gov­ernment and build its security and governance capacity over the long-term, but only so long as Iraqis continue to make meaningful political progress.” [from Colin Kahl, Michele A. Flournoy and Shawn Brimley, "Shaping the Iraq Inheritance", Center for a New American Security, June 2008. < http://www.cnas.org/en/cms/?2311> ]

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William S. Lind
August 18, 2008

Despite the recent drop in the price of oil, the world economy is still sailing into troubled waters. The U.S. credit crisis is intensifying and spreading to Britain. Europe is moving toward recession. The international financial system continues to depend on mountains of debt. If the financial panic the Federal Reserve Bank has thus far managed to stave off materializes, we could witness a meltdown of historic proportions.

What does all this portend for Fourth Generation warfare? Regrettably, it means the omens are favorable for some non-state entities, especially those which compete with the state in the delivery of vital social services.

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Tags: fourth generation warfare

William S. Lind
August 18, 2008

What interests does the United States have at stake in the war between Russia and Georgia? Only one: that we remain out of it.

It almost passes belief to think that the Bush administration, bogged down in two wars and planning a third (with Iran), might move toward a confrontation with Russia. Yet that is what the White House appears to be doing. The August 11 Cleveland Plain Dealer reported that

President Bush called the violence unacceptable and Vice President Dick Cheney…said Russia’s actions in Georgia “must not go unanswered”…

Asked to explain Cheney’s comment, White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said, “It means it must not stand.”

That phrase should send cold chills down the back of every American. It precisely echoes President George H.W. Bush’s statement in response to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, a statement that led to war. The White House cannot be unaware of the parallel, which means it is threatening war with Russia.

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Tags: Georgia, President Bush, Russia

The second in the series of manuals and revisions from the 4GW Seminar at MCB Quantico, FMFM 1-3A, A Tactical Handbook for Counterinsurgency and Police Operations.

Here’s the preface:

Why another hip-pocket guide for counterinsurgency? What makes this different? This handbook is an offering from a group of Marine officers who feel that current doctrine is rapidly diverging from the intent of maneuver doctrine. Where other manuals aim to put current conflicts into the Maoist/Nationalist mold of the Twentieth century and aim to identify successful techniques, this book seeks to bring about a change in approach and thinking which is timeless. In an age where war is no longer monopolized by armies but is waged by non-governmental entities, ethnic groups, tribes, federal agencies and militias, we find it necessary to look to parallels and successful thought processes in the inter-agency arena. This we may apply to the current and future conflicts of a 4GW nature. Our hope is to complement the FMFM-1A and provide a useful springboard of thoughts and practices.

Available from our 4GW Manuals page.

The 4GW Seminar at Quantico has produced a new draft, 4.3, of FMFM-1A:

Please note that FMFM-1A is offered here in draft form. We (the seminar) welcome suggestions for changes and improvements. When the seminar reconvenes each fall, we will consider and evaluate any suggestions that we receive, although as the nature of Fourth Generation warfare has yet to reveal itself fully, we do not expect to produce a “final” version of the manual. Our goal is simply to continue to create a more comprehensive draft.

You can download it from our 4GW Manuals page.

By William S. Lind

As the neo-cons celebrate a “victory” in Iraq that has yet to be won, they also proclaim the downfall of Muqtada al-Sadr, leader of the Mahdi Army militia and staunch opponent of the American occupation.  The headline of the August 5 Wall Street Journal announced, “Radical Iraq Cleric in Retreat.”

Well, maybe.  But I think something else is happening to the Mahdi Army, and it is a development of more than passing interest to those concerned with 4GW theory.  I think Muqtada al-Sadr is attempting to transition from leading a 4GW, non-state entity, the Mahdi Army, to taking over a state.

Like all changes of horses in mid-stream, the operation is delicate and can easily go awry.  But Mr. Sadr so far seems to be making all the right moves.  As the Wall Street Journal piece reports,

Mr. Sadr began moving away from military operations when he ordered a cease-fire last August after Mahdj Army members clashed with government forces in the southern city of Karbala during a Shiite religious holiday.  The fighting represented growing rivalry between Sadr followers and supporters of the main Shiite parties in government … In February Mr. Sadr extended the cease-fire for an additional six months.

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Tags: Iraq, iraq war

By Elaine M. Grossman
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON - U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has declined to formally endorse an interagency “white paper” on nuclear deterrence strategy, Global Security Newswire has learned (see GSN, July 25, 2007).

The roughly 30-page document, which has yet to be publicly released, is intended to expand on a four-page statement about nuclear weapons policy issued jointly in July 2007 by three Cabinet secretaries:  Rice, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman.  The unclassified version of the new paper has been delayed several times but should be unveiled in the next few weeks, according to Bush administration officials.

The State Department was consulted on the white paper and supports its contents, but has stopped short of officially sponsoring it, Rice’s staff officially confirmed.  Aides said Rice opted to leave it to her defense and energy counterparts to issue the new document because it is more technical than last year’s statement, and thus lies outside her diplomatic purview.

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Tags: U.S. Nuclear

Bret Stephens has an editorial in today’s Wall St. J. justifying the war.  He makes the point that if we hadn’t invaded, we (meaning, I guess, his fellow neocons) would still think that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction.  I am not kidding:

Saddam is dead. Had he remained in power, we would likely still believe he had WMD.

I won’t remind you of the costs of this achievement.

Chuck Spinney voices his opinion on this subject, and proposes a thought experiment, in Counterpunch.

Here’s the premise:

At the heart of this question is the nature of the conflict in Afghanistan, specifically the question of whether or not it has mutated into something that is more akin to a classical guerrilla war as opposed to being part of a Fourth Generation War against al Quaeda. The two attachments below may help the reader to appreciate the different dimensions of this consideration.

Good luck with the experiment.

By William S. Lind
July 28, 2008

Senator John McCain’s position on the situation in Iraq is wrong on two counts, which means his criticism of Senator Obama is also wrong.  The twin pillars of McCain’s assessment of the war are a) the surge worked and b) because the surge worked we are now winning.  Neither of those views is based in fact.

The first represents the long-recognized logical fallacy known as post hoc ergo propter hoc, i.e., because one event occurred after another, it was a consequence of the first event.  Because the cock crows before sunrise, he thinks he makes the sun come up.  Because violence in Iraq dropped after the surge, McCain claims the surge caused the reduction in violence.  He is quick to add that he supported the surge at the time, which Obama did not.  In the real world, neither rooster nor Senator has quite so much reason to strut upon his dunghill.

The reduction in violence in Iraq, which is likely to prove temporary, has four causes, the least of which is the surge.

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